It wasn’t too many years ago when a dual-core processor in a notebook seemed exotic, but today, even quad-core processors don’t make anyone bat an eye. Overall, their adoption still hasn’t made a major impact in the market, but according to IHS iSuppli, things will shift by 2015, at which point a predicted 49% of notebooks sold will include them.
The report doesn’t go into great detail about the type of notebook that will see the greatest gain in quad-core usage, but it does seem to be including all notebook types, including ULV-type offerings. Currently, about 9% (21.2 million) quad-core notebooks will be sold this year, while that number will sky-rocket to 160 million in 2015. Additionally, six-core options are expected to reach 18% in the same year, up from <1% currently.
Something mentioned in the press release for the report stands out; Along with the move toward higher-performance multi-core designs, notebook PC microprocessors also are evolving to suit mobile lifestyles. Today’s consumers are demanding computers that can be used on the go, all day.
I doubt many would disagree with this. The point of a mobile PC is to be mobile, but if you are equipped with a notebook that at best lasts for three hours, then its use is constrained. Having such a notebook would be like needing to drive a car out of town but having a mere gallon of gas in the tank. Neither ending will be happy.
This is where things should get interesting over the next couple of years. Currently, both AMD and Intel (with a heavier nod towards the latter) have been designing very power-efficient mobile processors for some time, and it’s not rare to see a typical notebook today last for about eight hours with moderate workloads. Will we see the same thing on quad-core or even six-core notebooks in 2015?
At the rate we seem to be going, it could happen, but I’m sure it’s not an easy feat. Perhaps a better question – will 49% of people need a quad-core processor at their disposal in 2015? Today, many can get by just fine on a dual-core. It’d be great to see major strides to software parallelism made by 2015. Our processors continue to get faster and are packed with a large number of cores, but it still remains that much of the software we run today is ignorant of what we offer it.